According to the latest data released by LMC Automotive, in 2014, global light vehicle sales increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 87.167 million units. Among them, the sales volume of China's light-duty vehicles was 23.689 million, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, accounting for 27.1% of the global market. It is the world's largest automobile consumer market.
Although the growth rate of the Chinese auto market has gradually slowed down, this has not stopped the investment enthusiasm of major auto companies. At the same time as the sales target is raised, the pace of capacity expansion of car companies is also accelerating. According to incomplete statistics, in 2015, Volkswagen, GM, Honda and other car companies will usher in a new round of capacity release. These new capacity will also help more companies to cross the production and sales threshold of 1 million or even 2 million.
However, while auto companies are sprinting higher sales targets, overcapacity is once again surfaced. Some insiders predict that if the capacity building plans announced by major auto companies in the past two years are accumulated, China's auto production capacity may reach 40 million in 2015, far exceeding the industry's expected sales forecast of 25 million units in 2015, which means that Ten million vehicles have been idle. According to the analysis data of consulting firm IHS Automotive, the overall capacity utilization rate of China's auto industry in 2010 was 91%, and it is expected to drop to 68% by 2015.
Car companies staged production competitions In 2015, many companies will usher in new capacity releases. Shanghai Volkswagen has an annual production capacity of 1.77 million units. According to the plan, its plant in Changsha will be put into operation this year. According to the design capacity of 300,000 units of the plant, Shanghai Volkswagen's production capacity will exceed 2 million units after it is put into production. With the foundation of the second phase of the FAW-Volkswagen Foshan plant not long ago, FAW-Volkswagen's production capacity (including construction to be built) will also exceed 2 million.
According to GM's plan, with the accelerated expansion of Shanghai GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling, GM's production capacity in China will increase by 30% to 5 million in 2015.
Japanese car companies are also stepping up their production capacity. According to the previously officially announced plan, FAW Toyota's production capacity in 2015 will exceed one million units; GAC Toyota's total production capacity in 2015 will increase to 600,000 units. Dongfeng Honda's production capacity in 2015 will reach more than 500,000 units, supporting its sales target of 500,000 units this year; Guangqi Honda's third plant will be completed and put into production in 2015, when the production capacity of Guangqi Honda will reach 600,000 units. In Nissan, with the completion of the second phase of the Dalian plant, the total production capacity of Dongfeng Nissan will also reach 1.5 million.
Among the Korean car companies, Beijing Hyundai's two factories in Cangzhou, Hebei and Liangjiang New District in Chongqing started construction in 2015 with a design capacity of 300,000 units, which is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2016. At present, Beijing Hyundai has a total production capacity of about 1 million units. After the two new plants are put into production, it will increase production capacity by 600,000 units. In addition, more and more companies are rushing into the million-capacity camp.
Polarization of capacity utilization As the automakers expand their production and compete for higher sales targets, the market environment is constantly changing. According to insiders of car companies, the production capacity layout is generally planned 3 to 5 years in advance. This means that the planning of production capacity for car companies is based on market judgment a few years ago.
But this expectation is not always accurate. Take 2010 as an example. In the same year, the domestic automobile sales volume was 18.061 million, an increase of 32.37% over the same period of last year. In 2014, this growth rate has dropped to 6.9%. In this context, the expansion plan of car companies is also making the overcapacity problem more and more serious. According to IHS Automotive's analysis, the capacity utilization rate of China's auto industry will drop from 91% in 2010 to 68% in 2015.
Along with this, the market competition is more intense.
In recent years, the automobile enterprises represented by the public have begun to meet the increasingly diversified consumer demand by continuously segmenting the market segments. The enterprises represented by GM, Ford and Hyundai have also kept pace with the development of the market, and want to maximize the market. Seize the market dividend. In the context of the rapid growth of the SUV market, Shanghai GM, Beijing Hyundai and Changan Ford have launched a variety of products. In addition, companies represented by Nissan and Shenlong are also accelerating the pace of product exploration to further explore the growth potential of the third and fourth-tier markets.
According to IHS Automotive estimates, the capacity utilization rate of foreign brands will remain around 85%, above average. In comparison, some of the independent brands that are not obvious in terms of brand power and R&D capabilities are beginning to show signs of decline. Among the 19 independent brands sampled by Galaxy Securities, the capacity utilization rate of 15 brands is less than 50%, and individual companies are even less than 10%.
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