EGR pain period has passed, restructured teeth, and MAN cooperation ... China's heavy truck has a huge room for improvement.
Driven by the continuous growth of the macro economy and the drive of the residents' policies, the investment opportunities in the auto industry are clearly favorable. The major securities research institutes are optimistic about the industry investment. Among them, benefiting from the high level of investment and logistics, optimization of truck structure, improvement of truck quality and price increase, investment opportunities for heavy-duty trucks have increased significantly in 2010.
On January 15, 2010, CNHTC (000951) announced that the company produced 18,149 heavy trucks and sold 20,269 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2009; it achieved 82,777 vehicles in the whole year of last year, an increase of 9.40 year-on-year. %, achieved sales of 80,550 units, a slight increase of 1.68% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2010, the heavy truck industry ushered in a good start, and orders for heavy truck companies are generally very full, mainly due to the advent of the construction peak in 2010, coupled with the recent sharp drop in temperature, the sharp increase in demand for electric coal, driving equipment investment in the coal transportation sector, and dealers The demand for sales reserves at the peak of sales has stimulated the extra demand for heavy trucks, and heavy truck orders have surged with the industry. Sun Jianxin, a research fellow at Qilu Securities, believes that the factors supporting the long-term growth of China's heavy trucks have not changed and the heavy truck industry is still optimistic about the future. The upgrading of the consumption structure based on housing and automobiles will lead to upgrading of the industrial structure. With the development and construction of the central and western regions will increase the transportation of various resources in the central and western regions such as coal and non-ferrous metals to the east and steel and cement to the west. The development of the promotion of heavy tolls from the expressway to the trunk will ensure the demand for new and incremental heavy trucks. It is expected that the sales of heavy trucks will reach more than 700,000 units in 2010.
Tianxiang Investment Analysis pointed out that since the consumption of basic passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6L and below in 2009 exceeded the demand in 2010, it is expected that the investment opportunities for medium and low-end vehicles in 2010 will be small. With the recovery of the macro economy, the sales of medium and high-end models will be booming again in 2010, with an expected growth rate of 15%. On the other hand, the upgrading of automobile replacement standards will stimulate the increase in demand for commercial vehicles in 2010. At the same time, considering the cyclical nature of the passenger vehicle industry and the increasing demand for the downstream logistics industry of the truck industry, it is expected that the sales growth of commercial vehicles in 2010 will be 23%. about. In addition, with the recovery of exports and heavy trucks exceeding expectations, investment opportunities in the heavy truck industry will increase significantly.
According to the analysis of the China State Securities Research Institute, after one year of adjustment, Sinotruk has ushered in the best period of development in 2010. It is expected that the production and sales volume of heavy trucks in the first quarter is expected to reach more than 30,000 units, setting a record high; its profits The rate level is expected to return to the high level of the economy in 2007, and increase its EPS in 2010 and 2011 to 1.814 yuan and 2.165 yuan respectively, with the increase rate of 16% and 22% respectively. ,
Recalling that in 2009, the annual operating performance of China National Heavy Duty Truck was dull. Under the circumstances that the competitor’s profit exceeded the 2007 high, it was expected that the performance was only 68% of the peak period in 2007. The analysis of the Guojin Securities Research Institute concluded that the cost control The problem is the main reason for its general performance.
The analysis report believes that from the financial data of China National Heavy Duty Truck, it can be seen that the company's inventory increased sharply last year and has been digesting high-priced raw materials and semi-finished products since 2008. Second, due to the large fluctuations in the price of steel and other raw materials in the two years from 2008 to 2009, the company’s cost control over the upstream suppliers was problematic. As a result, when the prices of raw materials fell in 2009, the purchase prices of parts and components did not adjust in time, resulting in recovery of profitability. Lagging behind competitors, but the problem has been effectively resolved, it is expected that the company's earnings will return to normal levels in 2010.
In fact, in addition to raw material price control, EGR engine problems have also dragged down the sales and performance of Heavy Truck in 2009.
As a leader in the heavy truck industry with outstanding R&D capabilities, CNHTC has won an advanced position in the new changes in the National 3rd Standards with its outstanding R&D capabilities, and is on the market with IDU. Recall that at the beginning, when the industry was waiting for and waiting to wait for the arrival of China III, China National Heavy Duty Truck EGR engine "turned into the world," once let competitors caught off guard. The birth of the EGR engine not only eliminated the "curse" that the key technology of the country III was monopolized by multinational corporations such as Bosch, Delphi and Denso, but also enabled the company to quickly seize the market with its price advantage. In the second half of 2008, sales in the heavy truck industry declined. In 30% of the cases, the sales of heavy trucks only fell by 11%, and they achieved great success in the short term.
However, since the beginning of the second quarter of last year, some EGR products have encountered minor problems, and the volume of repairs has been large. After-sales expenses have risen significantly, and a considerable portion of the after-sales costs have been incurred, which has led to a sharp drop in raw material costs in the second and third quarters. The rise in interest rates did not increase, but it also dragged down the sales volume in the second half of the year, and dragged down the company's performance and stock price performance.
Today, the EGR pain period has passed. In 2010, China National Heavy Duty Truck has a huge room for improvement. According to understanding, the EGR problem has been basically solved and will no longer be a factor that plagues the sales and performance of the company's heavy trucks. In addition, in December and January, the company's orders were very sufficient. At present, the company has a full schedule of production. This also shows from another aspect that the EGR problem has been solved and the company's products have gained market recognition.
After the successful development of the EGR engine, the multiple approaches adopted by China National Heavy Duty Truck in the implementation of the National IV have given themselves more space. The Group’s restructuring will benefit the long-term development of the company. The restructured Dazha Group will formally become the transmission base of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. Dazheb Group will introduce the Nissan Chai Technology three times, and then it will digest and absorb, and Big Gear will enrich the company. Transmission products.
At the same time, cooperation with MAN will enhance the company's medium- and long-term competitiveness. The cooperation between MAN and MAN will effectively enhance the company's technical level and enhance the company's mid-to-long-term competitiveness. The domestic product of heavy trucks will be absorbed by the end of the year and is expected to be small by the end of this year and early next year. Mass production.
It is worth noting that some raw materials such as steel and non-ferrous metals will continue to rise in price, and market competition will remain motivated and other factors will exert pressure on the operation of CNHTC. On January 13, China National Heavy Duty Truck issued a 700 million yuan 365-day short-term financing bill in the interbank market to supplement production and operating liquidity and optimize the debt structure.
According to analysis by industry insiders, due to the production cycle of the heavy-duty truck industry, after receiving an order, a production company needs to purchase raw materials and organize production. The purchase price must be received when the vehicle is sold. With the continuous increase in the production and sales volume of China National Heavy Duty Truck in recent years, there is a certain funding gap in the production process. In order to effectively relieve the financial pressure and ensure the smooth implementation of the production plan, CNHTC plans to arrange 300 million yuan for the replenishment of current funds to raise funds, mainly for CNHTC Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. The Group's Jinan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Jinan Special Vehicle Co., Ltd. are used by vehicle manufacturers.
It is reported that the short-term financing needs of China National Heavy Duty Truck are mainly met through bank loans, and the short-term capital cost is relatively high. As of September 2009, the issuer’s short-term loan balance was RMB 10.223 billion. Part of the short-term financing bills raised in this period was used to repay bank loans and optimize the debt structure. It plans to arrange 400 million yuan to replace bank loans.
China National Heavy Duty Truck said that the issuance of short-term financing bills in this period will help the company increase the proportion of direct financing and optimize the financing structure, increase the flexibility of the company's cash management, and further reduce the cost of financing.
On December 11, 2009, the 120,000th vehicle produced in that year was officially off the assembly line at Sinotruk Group Jinan Truck Co., Ltd., and the production and sales of CNHTC Group recorded a new record. The production and sales volume increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and they entered the top 3 in global heavy truck production and sales. Bit, comparable to Daimler and Volvo.
In fact, with the increasing annual sales base of heavy truck trucks, CNHTC is planning a new business growth point, and has thus become a more complete commercial vehicle fleet.
On December 20th, 2009, Cai Dong, General Manager of Sinotruk Group, said in an interview with the media that in 2010, China National Heavy Duty Trucks will try a small knife in the passenger car market, and has already built a new factory for this purpose. Affected by the news of entering the bus, on January 6th, China National Heavy Duty Truck started to go low, and after the stock price rose, it soared. In fact, the efforts of heavy-duty trucks to enter the bus industry have repeatedly attracted attention. In the last century [reviewed image] in the 90s, CNHTC reorganized the Jinan Bus Factory and established China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Jinan Bus Co., Ltd.; at the end of 2008, CNHTC established the Bus Division, during which time it was reported that CNHTC wanted to restructure Zhongtong Bus. Sex scandal.
Cai Dong said that in the past few years, China National Heavy Duty Trucks has been busy doing the truck business, and the passenger car segment has not really done a good job. It is now ready to pick up again. FAW, Dongfeng, and CNHTC, such as the large truck group built passenger cars, in the chassis technology, scientific research team enjoy the advantages of most of the conversion plant is incomparable, but most of the enterprise group's passenger coach factory still relies on external sales chassis-based stage. The competitiveness of the vehicle is not strong. Some people in the industry believe that this is due to the disregard of the passenger car business by large groups, and some people think that there is a big gap between the state-owned large-scale auto groups and the private enterprises in terms of flexibility in the marketing system and satisfaction of the individual needs of passenger transport users. In this regard, Cai Dong said that CNHTC will focus on building a bus marketing team to learn from other colleagues and hope to make a difference in this area.
In 2010, export and logistics demand will be the main driving force for the growth of the industry. As the leading company in the heavy truck industry, Sinotruk will fully share the benefits brought by the booming industry.
It is foreseeable that the performance of CNHTC's bus division in 2010 will affect the sensitive stock price and it is worth looking forward to.
View related topics: China National Heavy Duty Truck Breaks Monthly Sales Record for National Heavy Truck Industry
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