"Is there any room for development? My conclusion is yes. Last year, the pace of development slowed down to 4%, and we forecast that it will be 6% this year." Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said.
At the “Tsinghua University Automotive Industry Summit Forum†held recently, Dong Yang’s rapid growth from the automotive industry, the development path of Chinese brands during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€, and the relationship between “Made in China 2025†and the automobile industry, etc. A comprehensive analysis of the overall status of China's auto industry.
Talking about why the growth rate of the auto market fell to 4% last year, Dong Yang cited several factors. The first is city purchase restrictions. "Last year, there were seven cities that restricted purchases. The sales of cars in these seven restricted cities accounted for 15% of the national market in 2010." This was followed by the relocation of "used cars" in most of the cities in China. The State Council deliberately issued a document this year and explicitly stated that it was not allowed to do so.
"I think that there will be no problem in the future development of China's autos. It is very likely that China's auto output will grow within 20 years, and it will increase by 20 years, or by 15 years, depending on our speed. Slower, better days will be Longer, this is my overall view of the Chinese automobile market.†Dong Yang said.
After the reform and opening up, the Chinese automobile industry has achieved great results after more than 30 years of development. Under the embarrassing situation of "no money, no technology, no management". Through comprehensive opening-up, joint ventures and cooperation, we have developed step by step to the status of the world’s largest producer and seller. “If you compare India, Russia, and Canada, Brazil and Spain, no matter how big or small their open policies are, they really have very few cars produced in the country. And Chinese car brands have not only grown up, they can now have millions of exports. (Of course, there was a decline in auto exports last year.) Dong Yang said.
At present, the market share of Chinese auto brands is nearly half. Trucks and buses are all basically Chinese brands, cars and SUVs, and Chinese brands also account for a considerable proportion. In terms of quality, Chinese auto brands are chasing joint venture brands. According to statistics, the first failure rate indicator is only four years behind the joint venture brand.
"The next five years will definitely be the period in which China's auto industry has the fastest growth in its ability to innovate. Because in the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the money spent on innovation will certainly be greater than before." Dong Yang said, "Our output value increases, and companies More attention is paid to the increase in the proportion of investment, and “Made in China 2025â€, I think that the auto industry should be the main protagonist if it does not allow it. If we say that German industry is 4.0, then I think that in Chinese industry, the automobile industry is 3.0. In Industry 4.0, the automotive industry is the main technical pillar, which should also be the case in China."
Talking about the future development speed of the auto industry, Dong Yang said that “should not be too fast or too fastâ€, the growth of production and sales should be equal to GDP growth, and the increase in sales, growth, and related taxes should be higher than the average increase in industry. speed.
"As far as the market peak that China's auto market may reach, my forecast is probably to produce and sell 40 million vehicles a year. By that time, the number of people in autos will reach 400, which is basically the current level in South Korea," said Dong Yang.
Dong Yang stated that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, it may be the best period for China’s automobile development. “Not necessarily the fastest, but the bestâ€. What can be expected is that the government management departments will have relatively big improvements during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. From the perspective of government management, measures such as energy saving and emission reduction will become more stable and long-term when it comes to taxation of cars.
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