China's domestic price of potash fertilizer is expected to rise

Golmud, Qinghai Province, traveled along the 215 national highway to Dunhuang, Gansu, and traveled to the northwest for 60 minutes. As the grass and trees fell, they did not grow grass. What is seen from the bottom of the eye is the endless “black soil”. The "black soil" character is white, because the dust in the air is so heavy that it wets the ground and "stains" the white salt black. This is Chaer Khan, the largest salt lake in China. Since the 50s and 60s of the last century, generation after generation of Chinese people have studied how to extract potassium, lithium, magnesium, and sodium, which are rich in salt lakes, on the salt flats where there are no birds in the sky and grass is not on the ground. Wait.
According to the reporter, there are no other buildings in the radius of tens of kilometers except for potash fertilizer plants and new construction sites. Every morning, Salt Lake is a team of 50 buses that transport workers from Golmud to Qarhan and send them back in the evening.
In 2007, China consumed 11 to 12 million tons of potash, domestically produced 3.2 million tons of potash, and the self-sufficiency rate was only 30%. Among them, Qarhan produces 2.5 million to 2.8 million tons of potash fertilizer, of which 1.95 million tons are produced from ST Salt Lake and its controlled salt lake potash fertilizer.
The high degree of foreign dependence has made China always at a disadvantage in the international negotiations on potash fertilizer prices. Moreover, due to limited resources and technology, the self-sufficiency of potash fertilizer in China will continue in the next few years.
The price increase request is temporarily set to fall. At the end of April, the international potash contract price in 2008 was announced: The FOB price for potash supplied to China increased from US$170 to US$190 per ton for 2007 to US$570 to US$590, with a price increase of US$400 per ton. The increase was 2.2 times. After this news was published, many investors were concerned: Will Salt Lake Potash raise prices accordingly? At the end of last month, ST Salt Lake officials told reporters that according to the new international potash price, Salt Lake Potash had a report to the Qinghai Provincial Development and Reform Commission on May 3, hoping to raise prices. However, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission demanded that Salt Lake Potash maintain the price at the end of April on the ground that international prices have not yet been implemented.
Two-thirds of China's potash fertilizer comes from imports. China's self-produced potash fertilizers are autonomously priced in accordance with changes in the international market. Generally, they are reduced by 50 to 100 yuan per ton on the basis of imported CIF potash fertilizers. In April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Circular on Strengthening the Supervision over the Price of Potassium Chloride and Compound Fertilizers" and proposed that the subsequent price increase of potassium chloride products be reported or filed. The relevant personage of the Qinghai Provincial Development and Reform Commission explained to the Shanghai Securities News that after the filing system is adopted, the price increase of potassium chloride must be approved by the price regulator. Otherwise, the price cannot be increased. At present, in addition to salt lake potash, Qinghai also regulates the prices of other small-scale potash fertilizer plants in the area.
According to reports, the latest international potash fertilizer prices will be implemented from the second half of the year, and the first batch of new contract price potash fertilizer will arrive at the end of June and early July. So, in July, whether domestic potash prices can be raised? ST Salt Lake believes that it is not clear.
Potash price hike has been frustrated, which is related to the CPI data that has been high for the past year. The Sichuan earthquake disaster further brought pressure on the CPI. The end users of potash fertilizer are farmers, and the increase in fertilizer prices will increase the cost pressures for rising grain prices. Food is a basic product, and rising food prices will in turn boost downstream products.
At the end of April, the domestic market price of potash fertilizer was about 3,700 yuan/ton. Analysts believe that if you count the freight, the international potash fertilizer price under the new contract is about 4,655 yuan/ton, and the domestic potash price per ton is higher by 955 yuan at the end of April. As the supply of potassium chloride is tight, even if the ex-factory price is maintained at 3,700 yuan/ton, after the middlemen get the goods, the final selling price will also be in line with international standards. From this perspective, controlling the ex-factory price does not play a role in controlling the price of potash.
This reporter learned that, at present, the market price of potash has risen to 4,500 yuan to 4,700 yuan / ton, but the market is very small.
According to the announcement on April 24, in 2007, the average price of salt lakes was 1,875 yuan/ton (including tax); the average sales price in the first quarter of 2008 was 2,610 yuan/ton (including tax), and the sales of potassium fertilizer was 300,000 tons.
According to ST Salt Lake sources, in 2008, the cost of potash will increase substantially, and is expected to be 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 669.28 yuan per ton from the previous year. The main reasons are the increase in raw ore costs, resource taxes, research funds, bank interest and labor costs.
In 2008, ST Salt Lake plans to produce 1.95 million tons of potassium chloride, which is basically the same as the previous year's output of 1,959,800 tons.
ST Salt Lake holds a 30.60% stake in Salt Lake potash, and is its largest shareholder. Due to the skyrocketing price of potash fertilizer, ST Salt Lake's profits in 2007 basically come from the investment income from salt lake potash fertilizer.
According to the announcement, the three companies controlled by Salt Lake Potash Corp. are: Salt Lake Development (50.9%, the remaining shares are held by ST Salt Lake), ternary potassium fertilizer (57%), and Jingda Technology (73.2%), with a production capacity of 1 million tons respectively. 100,000 tons and 50,000 tons. Among them, the Sanyuan Company also controlled the 51% stake in Yuantong Potash, and Yuantong’s production of potash potassium chloride was actually 400,000 tons. In addition, the Salt Lake Potash Division will produce 400,000 tons of potash fertilizer annually.
It will take time for domestic expansion to take place in 2008. How can international potash prices rise 2.2 times? Is this upward trend sustainable?
Potash is mainly extracted from potassium resources. Analyst Wei Tao of Guotai Junan believes that the world reserves of potassium resources are abundant, and the production capacity of potash fertilizer is surplus. However, the international potash fertilizer sellers have formed two major monopoly groups, the joint venture sales company CANPOTEX, consisting of several potash companies in North America, and the BPC sales alliance formed by several companies in the former Soviet Union region. The potash fertilizer production capacity of these two major groups accounts for 75% of the world's total, and the monopoly pattern makes the two major groups take the initiative in international negotiations. Under the background of the soaring prices of international agricultural products, in order to share the profits of downstream industries, in 2008, these two major groups adopted the strategy of limiting production insured prices and successfully achieved price increases.
On the other hand, as a large agricultural country, China consumed 11 million to 12 million tons of potash fertilizer in 2007, but produced only 3.2 million tons of self-sufficiency, and its self-sufficiency rate was less than 30%. Most of the potash fertilizers rely on imported patterns, which has forced China to accept high international prices.
Fertilizers used to increase grain production include nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The main effect of potash fertilizer is to increase grain plumpness. In China, the soil in the south, especially in the south, is relatively low in potassium. At present, the ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash in China is seriously deregulated. According to data from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the proportion of potash fertilizer in China is too low. The ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in chemical fertilizer application is 1:0.4:0.16, which is much lower than 1:0.42:0.42 in developed countries.
In the first floor lobby of the Salt Lake Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Xining, Qinghai Province, a Chinese outline is drawn on the ground, which is marked with four circles, each representing the location of China's salt lake resources, namely the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province, Lop Nur in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia. According to a person from the Salt Lake Institute, the salt lake in Tibet is located in a remote location, and the distribution of potassium resources is not concentrated, and the reserves are not high. The salt lakes in Inner Mongolia are dominated by sodium and have a low potassium content. The best potassium resources were Qarhan in the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai Province and Lop Nur in the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang. Chaerhan and Lop Nur said that China’s two major deposits with over 100 million reserves and mainly potassium. Due to the relatively late exploration and development of Lop Nur salt lake resources, at present, domestic potash fertilizer basically comes from Chaerhan.
With the soaring price of potash fertilizer, can the potash fertilizer in the Salt Lake Department be expanded? Relevant sources told reporters that for the sustainability of mining, according to the amount of resources currently owned, 2 million tons is already at full capacity.
The total potassium resources in the Chaerhan Salt Lake are 540 million tons, of which 390 million tons are solid potassium and 160 million tons are liquid potassium (due to technology limitations, only part of the liquid potassium can now be mined). The Chaerhan Salt Lake resources are bounded by the Qinghai-Tibet railway, west to the Salt Lake system and east to the local legion. According to this industry, the salt lake system has a total of 140 million tons of liquid potassium, of which 30 million tons of salt lake potash. “The freshwater used by Qarhan is imported from Golmud. From the point of view of balancing freshwater supply, from the point of view of balancing 140 million tons of liquid potassium, it cannot be overexploited. Otherwise, it will increase the difficulty of mining.”
The use of solid potassium is still in the stage of research and development of related technologies. After the success of the technology, it is not ruled out that an annual output of one million tons of potash fertilizers will be produced. But it is still too early. Some analysts believe that the high price of potash can be maintained at least until next year.
Listed companies are involved in "potassium"
Potash prices have soared and investors have entered. Lop Nur is the most sought-after place. After geological exploration in recent years, it has been initially ascertained that the reserve of potassium salt amounts to 240 million tons and the long-term reserve exceeds 504 million tons. It is one of the largest potassium salt deposits in the world.
Different salt lakes contain different elements. The potassium fertilizer produced by Lop Nur is potassium sulfate. According to industry insiders, China produces three kinds of potassium fertilizers - potassium chloride, potassium sulfate and potassium magnesium sulfate. Among them, potassium chloride has the highest potassium content, and is generally applicable to crops except for tobacco and chlorine-tolerant crops. Potassium sulfate is mainly suitable for economic crops; Potassium sulfate and magnesium have lower effective potassium content and prices are much lower. Guo Tao Junan analyst Wei Tao said that on the domestic market, the price of potassium sulfate is 1,000 to 1,200 yuan more than potassium chloride per ton.
At present, domestic potassium sulphate is made of potassium chloride and sulfuric acid. The cost is higher. The Lop Nur salt lake has potassium and sulfur, and the production cost is much lower. In April 2006, the National Key Project for Western Development and the 1.2 million ton potassium sulfate project for Lop Nur in Xinjiang were started. It is expected to be completed in October this year and put into full operation next year. The project development body is SDIC Xinjiang Lop Pot Potash Co., Ltd., of which China National Development and Investment Corporation holds 63% of shares, and Guannong is the second largest shareholder, holding 20.3% of the shares. At this year's National "Two Conferences", Wang Huisheng, general manager of the National Development and Investment Corporation, revealed that the ultimate goal of SDIC will be the overall listing, but before this, it will first integrate the division of its different plate assets, respectively, to achieve the listing.
Another listed company with potassium fertilizer is Fiyta. The resources of the Qaidam Salt Lake are divided into four parts. Apart from Qarhan, there are also Mahai, Dongxitai and Yiliping. The Yiliping mining rights are still owned by the provincial government, and the other three are all famous. Ma Haihai returned to Shenzhen AVIC, a major shareholder of FIYTA, which integrated a potash fertilizer plant with an annual output of 300,000 tons. The exploitation rights of the Salt Lakes in East and West Taiwan are controlled respectively by Western Mining’s major shareholder Western Mining Group and CITIC Guoan. According to the introduction of the Salt Lake Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the salt lake resources in the east and west of Tainan are mainly lithium, and their potassium content is relatively small. Like the Lop Nur, it is potassium sulfate. In Dongtai, Western Mining Group and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Salt Lake Institute and other cooperation, the establishment of a lithium company in Qinghai, trial production of 3,000 tons of lithium, 25,000 tons of potassium sulfate, 5,000 tons of boron and magnesium. In West Taijinal Salt Lake, CITIC Guoan develops this resource through Qinghai Guoan, which holds 99.375% of its shares. The daily output of the company's 300,000 tons of potassium sulfate and magnesium fertilizer production line is gradually increasing. According to the announcement of the company in 2005, it is planned to build an annual output of 1 million tons of potassium magnesium fertilizer, 50,000 tons of boric acid, and 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Xitai.
There is also a project worthy of attention, which is the subsidiary of Zhongtian Mining Potash Co., Ltd. of Yuntianhua Group. In recent years, China’s neighbors Laos and Thailand have discovered giant potash deposits. Among them, the ultra-large potash deposits in the Vientiane Basin of Laos predict that the reserves of potassium chloride resources will reach 13.362 billion tons. The friendly relations between China and Laos have a long history, and the Laos government has given the Vientiane Basin to Chinese companies to mine. In November 2004, Zhongye Mining Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. signed Laos Violet Basin Potash Mining Production Agreement with Laos, and obtained the “Investment License” and “Mining License”.
"If refining technology can break through, this project has great potential," said a person familiar with the situation.

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