With the star fire of the “banned fuel car” on the global scale, the new energy car has ushered in a golden age. Analysts expect that if the regulatory drive "spent oil from electricity" process is smooth, it will have a major impact on the supply and demand of bulk commodities, especially some non-ferrous metals.

The golden age of new energy vehicles

In September this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it has started research and development of a fuel truck lock-up schedule, and will implement a dual-integration policy for energy vehicles in the near future. Previously, many European countries have introduced timetables. The United Kingdom and France have set a target for the total ban on traditional diesel-fueled vehicles in 2040, while Germany has set a target time of 2030. The Netherlands and Norway plan to ban the sale earlier. It is expected in 2025.

At the same time, well-known car manufacturers at home and abroad have also begun to compete in the layout of new energy vehicles market, and have released the strategic plan of 2020 and 2025 to lay out new energy vehicle market, setting off a wave of transformation from traditional vehicles to new energy vehicles. For example, Volvo announced that it will no longer produce fuel cars from 2019, becoming the first company in the world to announce the suspension of pure gasoline vehicles.

There are indications that the fuel vehicle market will gradually be swallowed up by new energy vehicles in the coming decades. "At present, the market share of electric vehicles in the global market is only 1%, but as the major automotive data markets such as China, France and the United Kingdom have put the ban on selling fuel vehicles on the agenda, the future of a world dominated by electric vehicles will not be far away. Unreachable." Some insiders commented.

The latest domestic new energy production and sales data has confirmed the arrival of this trend. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association on October 12, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 77,000 vehicles and 78,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 79.7% and 79.1% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 64,000 units, up 85.2% and 83.4% respectively. The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 13,000 and 14,000 respectively, up 57.6% and 61.9% respectively.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, from January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 424,000 and 398,000 respectively, an increase of 40.2% and 37.7% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 348,000 and 325,000 respectively, up 51.6% and 50.1% respectively over the same period of last year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 76,000 and 73,000 respectively, up from the same period of last year. 4.0% and 0.6%.

Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that based on the performance of the new energy vehicle market in the previous two years, new energy vehicles will enter a period of high growth from the second half of the year. If the growth rate in September will be maintained in the next few months, this year it is expected to reach the sales target of 700,000 new energy vehicles.

Raw material conduction data

"In order to reduce oil dependence and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, new energy is the development trend of the automobile industry. The world's major automobile production and sales countries, such as the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, etc., have continuously proposed clear new energy plans to promote the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Development." Li Weifeng, an analyst at Everbright Securities, pointed out.

According to EVI (Electric Vehicles Initiative), by 2020, the number of new energy vehicles in the world is expected to reach 12.9 million. At the end of 2015, the number of new energy vehicles in the world was 814,000. Based on this calculation, the compound growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2015-2020 is about 71%.

International investment bank Morgan Stanley once predicted that if the regulatory drive "spent oil from electricity" process smoothly, electric vehicles are expected to reach 60% penetration rate in the automotive market by 2040, and this number will be further improved by 2045. To 95%.

A professor at Stanford University even boldly predicted: "All vehicles in the world will be electric in 2025."

If this expectation is really realized, it will have a major impact on the supply and demand of bulk commodities, especially some non-ferrous metals. In a report by UBS Evidence Lab, a world of pure electric vehicles was conceived, and the Volkswagen version of the Chevrolet Bolt model was used as a sample to disassemble the composition of electric vehicles and to anticipate changes in demand for bulk commodity materials.

The report assumes that if the world's cars are all Chevrolet Bolt, then the demand for commodities will change as follows: lithium demand will surge by 2898% due to the widespread use of lithium batteries; used in ternary cathode materials (NMC Cathode) Cobalt, demand will increase by 1928%; demand for rare earth will increase by 655%; demand for graphite will increase by 524%; demand for nickel will increase by 105%; demand for copper will increase by 22%; demand for manganese will increase by 14%; demand for aluminum will increase by 13%; demand for silicon will remain unchanged; Steel demand will drop by 1% due to reduced usage; platinum (PGMs) demand will be reduced by 53%, because platinum metal is used in fuel vehicle catalytic converters to reduce pollution emissions, and electric vehicles no longer need catalytic converters. .

The price increase has "lithium" and "cobalt" value is 100 times.

What is the hint of the golden age of new energy vehicles that will bring asset allocation?

Tianfeng Securities said that after entering the peak season of traditional new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter, production is expected to continue to rise, and demand for lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have recently risen to 171,000 yuan / ton, and prices are expected to continue to rise as demand continues to rise.

"We are optimistic about the heavy demand for cobalt from the booming new energy automobile industry. At the same time, due to the concentration of cobalt resources and single supply, cobalt is expected to usher in a turning point in supply and demand. It gives the cobalt industry the first 'buy' rating." Li Weifeng said.

Haitong Securities pointed out that the new energy automobile industry chain is the general direction, including five upstream varieties: lithium, cobalt, copper foil, nickel sulfate, magnetic materials. Recently, the price increase of Yanfeng Lithium Industry shows that the industry has more than expected highlights.

CITIC Securities Research Department said that the production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a record high in September, and the double-points policy has a significant driving effect. The sales volume of 700,000 vehicles in the whole year is expected to be realized. It is recommended to pay attention to the continuous improvement of the new energy sector for the upstream resource products, pay attention to the technology upgrading of high value-added products and the increasing processing sector opportunities, pay attention to the supply and demand relationship repair to the performance of the basic metals, especially the copper sector companies.

In terms of specific configuration strategies, æ•–ç¿€ pointed out that, first of all, the new energy upstream resources in the fourth quarter is still the core thread of the grasp, the strong rebound of new energy vehicle production and sales data, and the full production of cathode materials manufacturers will further trigger the trading sentiment of the sector. Overall, the prices of cobalt, lithium, neodymium iron boron and cathode materials companies remain high, corporate orders are saturated, and the performance of the individual stocks continues to be optimistic. Secondly, the supply and demand relationship will support the high copper price operation, and the performance elasticity of the sector is expected to be further catalyzed. The net multi-positions of copper at home and abroad are close to the previous highs, and the inventory continues to decline. Due to environmental protection and overhaul, China's output growth rate is only maintained at around 1%. The downstream demand is stable. Import data is strong in September. Domestic spot premium is high, fourth quarter. Copper prices are expected to remain high. Finally, the processing sector's performance is stable and sustainable, and it is still the focus of the three quarterly reports. Focusing on product upgrades and high-end manufacturing, companies with certain economies of scale are expected to benefit from a shift in consumption structure.

However, the battery formulas of different models are also different, and the amount of metal used is naturally different. For example, Tesla and Bolt have different battery configurations. Bolt uses the NMC cathode combination (the ratio of nickel, manganese and cobalt is 1:1:1), while Tesla uses the NCA cathode combination (the ratio of nickel, cobalt and aluminum is 16:3:1).

Overall, the market is more consistent with the expected increase in demand for lithium and cobalt. Citigroup said that lithium supply will continue to be tight until early 2018, and will increase the predicted price of lithium carbonate by 24% to $14,000/ton next year.

Li Weifeng predicts that global cobalt consumption will reach 1,500,300 tons in 2020, and the compound growth rate will be 11% from 2016 to 2020. It is assumed that global refined cobalt production will grow at a rate of 6% per year (regardless of factors such as mine production and production stoppages, etc. From 2011 to 2016, the compound growth rate is 6%. It is expected that the supply and demand pattern of cobalt in 2018 is expected to change from oversupply to oversupply. Then the gap continues to expand, boosting the overall rise in cobalt prices.