Viewpoint: It is expected that the growth rate of investment in the machinery industry will rebound in the first half of 2007, and the sales and profit levels of special equipment such as construction and construction machinery and mining equipment are all in a rare good condition in recent years. Regulation and control will make the industry's economy continue to grow in a rational manner. .
The catalogue of imported goods not subject to tax exemption for domestic investment projects has been revised again to provide a relatively fair competitive environment for domestic equipment manufacturing companies to carry out independent innovation. The leading enterprises producing high-end products benefit the most. CNC machine tools, forgings and dies were awarded "VAT returns after first signing." In the future, the specific policies for the merger of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, large aircrafts, and CNC machine tools are worth looking forward to.
In 2007, non-operational capital operation will bring significant investment opportunities to the industry. The backdoor listing of the group is just the beginning of assets injection.
Investment growth will rebound in the first half of the year
Since the second half of 2006, the growth rate of investment in the machinery industry has been declining. The increase in value-added of enterprises has also been quite obvious. Is this the beginning of the trend or is it preparing to rebound in the first half of 2007?
From the perspective of new investment, the deceleration trend at the end of 2006 is quite obvious. By the end of the year, it has been close to the lowest point in the past three years; equipment investment has been lower than the overall investment growth rate in 2006, and the growth rate in the second half has been rising. Basically, it was not affected by regulation, indicating that the internal driving force of equipment procurement is still in place; and from the number of new construction and construction projects at the end of 2006, although the increment has decreased relative to 2005, the value is still at a very high level. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that the investment growth rate will rebound in the first half of 2007.
Various sub-sectors are expected to grow steadily
Since the construction machinery and mining machinery that we are focusing on are all special equipment, the growth of the construction machinery will have an overall grasp of the status of the entire machinery industry. From the data as of the end of December 2006, the special equipment industry continued its high growth trend since 2005, which increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year. The entire industry's sales and profit levels are in a rare good condition in recent years. However, from the monthly growth rate of sales growth, the regulation in the second half of 2006 has had some impact on the industry. Fortunately, the growth rate of the industry's profits did not fall as rapidly as in the second quarter of 2004. It is estimated that the regulation will continue the rational growth of the machinery industry in 2007.
In the months after 2006, the sales growth rate of ship fittings, mining equipment, forgings and powder metallurgy products, construction machinery, railway rolling stock and accessories, metal vessels, printing equipment, and metal cutting machine tools are all at a A higher level; among which, profit growth of construction and construction machinery, metal ships, metal cutting machine tools, and printing equipment is much higher than sales growth, and profitability of the industry has been greatly improved; aircraft manufacturing and repair industry and textile special equipment are two industries. Although the growth rate of sales is not high, the profit growth rate has surpassed that of the industry. It is estimated that the profitability of the dominant enterprises in the industry will increase greatly.
From a production point of view, lifting equipment, forklift trucks, CNC machine tools, and powder metallurgy production maintained a trend of increasing momentum in previous years, and were not affected by the adjustments in the second half of 2006. In particular, CNC machine tools and powder metallurgy products grew rapidly in the last months. It is expected that this momentum will be maintained until the first half of 2007. The three sub-sectors of construction and construction machinery were not affected by the regulation in the months after 2006. The shovel and concrete machinery still maintained the annual average growth rate. The growth of compacted machinery gradually bottomed out in the third quarter and then rebounded. The monthly growth rate is above 25%, and the sub-industry shows signs of recovery. According to industry practice, the first two quarters are peak sales seasons. Considering the limited impact of last year's regulation, at least we can expect steady growth in the first half of 2007.
Invigorating policy
Domestic investment projects are not subject to tax-free imports of goods again revised. This revision is another comprehensive revision since 2000. The main contents of the revision include: 192 new catalogues, mainly equipments that have already possessed manufacturing capability and technical level can meet the requirements, such as general machinery, metallurgy, mining machinery, food, packaging, environmental protection, instrumentation and electronics. Some market capacity is relatively large, and it is possible for China to form equipment with manufacturing capabilities in the short term. The revised 207 articles are mainly aimed at improving technical specifications and equipment names, and are easy to implement by enterprises and customs. In addition, the technical specifications of the individual items in the original catalogue are high, and this time it has also been downgraded realistically.
This policy adjustment is an important measure to implement the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of the Equipment Manufacturing Industryâ€. Although it has little impact on the short-term profitability of the company, it will provide a relatively fair competition for domestic equipment manufacturing companies to carry out independent innovation. The environment is very beneficial to long-term development. Compared with the last revision, due to the improvement of the specifications of many non-tax-exempt equipment, the leading enterprises that produce high-end products benefit the most.
VAT first return policy. On December 5, 2006, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Value Added Tax Return Policy†on the CNC machine tools, forgings, and tooling industries respectively. The policy is for the products listed in the appendix of each notification from 2006 to 2008. The respective proportions of VAT reimbursement have made new regulations and it is expected that the profits of related companies will be affected for three years from 2007.
The range of CNC machine tools that enjoy the policy includes CNC machine tools, numerical control systems, and functional components. Forging products that enjoy policies are metal parts produced using forging processes. Forgings are divided into large and medium free forgings, die forgings, extrusions, and rings. Powder metallurgy parts and head forming parts; mold products enjoying the policy include molds, mold standard parts, and die clamp integrated inspection tools.
Follow-up policy is worth the wait. Consolidation of income tax of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises: The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress first reviewed the draft of the merger of domestic and foreign-funded corporate income tax mergers on December 24, 2006. The new tax law sets the statutory tax rate at about 25%, and the transition period for foreign-funded enterprises is set at 3 to 5 years. The tax preference will be shifted to industrial preferences, supplemented by regional preferences. This will reduce the overall actual tax burden of domestic-funded enterprises and increase the overall tax burden of foreign-funded enterprises. Taking into account the background of the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry, the machinery industry is in line with the future income tax preferences. If the tax is adjusted to 25%, the performance improvement will be above 10%.
The special plan for large aircrafts was first disclosed at the 2006 annual working meeting of the National Commission for Science, Technology, Industry and Technology for National Defense. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s aviation industry will start the development of large aircrafts in due course. Shortly afterwards, the State Council issued the Outline of the National Medium and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020), and large aircraft, manned space projects, and “Sui†projects were included in the major scientific and technological special projects of the sixteen countries. At the beginning of January this year, the Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense also said that it is conducting an active and cautious demonstration of the development of a large-scale science and technology project for large aircraft. The large aircraft plan includes two parts, a large military transport plane and a trunk passenger plane. It is difficult to develop and has a long period. It is expected that it will span two to three “five-year plansâ€.
CNC machine tool special plan: In the third quarter of 2006, the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools (Draft)†was reported by the association to the National Development and Reform Commission. It has been in the process of soliciting opinions and is expected to be formally announced in the near future. According to the draft, in the next five years, the machine tool industry will create several industrialized bases for CNC machine tools and supporting basic functional component industrial bases. The base companies will enjoy national policies and financial support. Among them, the plan to introduce the supporting value-added tax return, import equipment, tax-free directory adjustment policy has been announced.
The main trend of the industry in 2007
Construction Machinery: The slowdown in the growth rate of investment and industrial added value in the second half of last year brewed the arrival of a new round of climax. After the government's control techniques are upgraded, investment will not be excessively reduced, but it will not appear the kind of hot in 2006. The over-expectation of the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry will result from the unexpected growth of exports, which may be more pronounced in the traditional off-season from January to February.
Shipbuilding and port equipment: The rational return of the shipping price has made it difficult to conceal the increase in performance. As of the end of November 2006, global orders for new hand-held vessels have reached 404 million DWT, which is close to one-third of the total global tonnage of existing merchant ships. In 2006, the global fleet tonnage growth rate was 6.1%, which was higher than the shipping volume by 5%. With a growth rate of ~6%, it is expected that the gap will be more pronounced in 2007. From the perspective of handheld orders and fleet ownership, 52% of container ships, 33.2% of tankers, and 20% of bulk carriers are expected to see demand for tankers and container ships slow or even decline (although the bulk carrier market will become more active. Especially considering that the proportion of people over 20 years of age is as high as 42%).
In the short term, in the first half of 2007, due to the implementation of many new rules such as protective coatings for new ballast tanks, double-hulled fuel tanks, and double-hulled oil tankers, orders will remain strong. In addition, from a longer period of time, the main driving factor of the global shipbuilding industry economy is naturally the international shipping demand brought about by the global economic prosperity, and the economic downturn naturally also looks at the direction of the global economy. Therefore, the shipbuilding industry has at least a period of calm after the explosion.
Machine tools: The integration of industry growth and resources is the main focus. According to historical data, the prosperity of the machine tool industry lags behind that of investment. It is expected that the investment climate in 2006 will have a positive impact on the 2007 machine tools. From the growth data at the end of 2006, the growth rate of gold-cutting machine tools and numerically-controlled machine tools has obviously increased. After adjustments in previous years, the industry's technological level and operating conditions have greatly improved; the machine tool industry is also the main beneficiary of the revitalization policy. Therefore, we are optimistic about the growth of the machine tool industry in 2007.
Railway equipment: Investment has increased dramatically. The Ministry of Railways' all-road planning work conference held in mid-January proposed that the scale of railway investment in fixed assets this year be 332 billion yuan, including 256 billion yuan in infrastructure, 16 billion yuan in renovations, and 60 billion yuan in vehicle purchases. There are 70 newly-started projects, focusing on major projects such as the railway passenger dedicated line, coal transportation channel, and inter-regional contact channels, and all construction machinery companies will benefit from this.
Although the number of projects started was reduced by 17 compared with the same period of last year, the total investment plan growth rate remained at the level of nearly 50%. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment plans is 55%, and it is expected that the demand for components for construction machinery and railway construction parts will continue to increase. The purchase cost of vehicles is planned to increase by 36%, with an increase of about 16 billion yuan. It is expected that the purchase of vehicles will continue to increase rapidly.
Coal Machinery: New opportunities for high-end downstream demand. Judging from the planning of the coal industry, the coal industry in the future will develop in the direction of large-scale, mechanized, high-efficiency, and high-security industries. The future demand for the coal machinery industry will not only depend on new production capacity. The replacement of old equipment will be The main point of view of the booming coal industry is to bring new development opportunities to the coal machinery industry, especially to high-end products.
The catalogue of imported goods not subject to tax exemption for domestic investment projects has been revised again to provide a relatively fair competitive environment for domestic equipment manufacturing companies to carry out independent innovation. The leading enterprises producing high-end products benefit the most. CNC machine tools, forgings and dies were awarded "VAT returns after first signing." In the future, the specific policies for the merger of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, large aircrafts, and CNC machine tools are worth looking forward to.
In 2007, non-operational capital operation will bring significant investment opportunities to the industry. The backdoor listing of the group is just the beginning of assets injection.
Investment growth will rebound in the first half of the year
Since the second half of 2006, the growth rate of investment in the machinery industry has been declining. The increase in value-added of enterprises has also been quite obvious. Is this the beginning of the trend or is it preparing to rebound in the first half of 2007?
From the perspective of new investment, the deceleration trend at the end of 2006 is quite obvious. By the end of the year, it has been close to the lowest point in the past three years; equipment investment has been lower than the overall investment growth rate in 2006, and the growth rate in the second half has been rising. Basically, it was not affected by regulation, indicating that the internal driving force of equipment procurement is still in place; and from the number of new construction and construction projects at the end of 2006, although the increment has decreased relative to 2005, the value is still at a very high level. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that the investment growth rate will rebound in the first half of 2007.
Various sub-sectors are expected to grow steadily
Since the construction machinery and mining machinery that we are focusing on are all special equipment, the growth of the construction machinery will have an overall grasp of the status of the entire machinery industry. From the data as of the end of December 2006, the special equipment industry continued its high growth trend since 2005, which increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year. The entire industry's sales and profit levels are in a rare good condition in recent years. However, from the monthly growth rate of sales growth, the regulation in the second half of 2006 has had some impact on the industry. Fortunately, the growth rate of the industry's profits did not fall as rapidly as in the second quarter of 2004. It is estimated that the regulation will continue the rational growth of the machinery industry in 2007.
In the months after 2006, the sales growth rate of ship fittings, mining equipment, forgings and powder metallurgy products, construction machinery, railway rolling stock and accessories, metal vessels, printing equipment, and metal cutting machine tools are all at a A higher level; among which, profit growth of construction and construction machinery, metal ships, metal cutting machine tools, and printing equipment is much higher than sales growth, and profitability of the industry has been greatly improved; aircraft manufacturing and repair industry and textile special equipment are two industries. Although the growth rate of sales is not high, the profit growth rate has surpassed that of the industry. It is estimated that the profitability of the dominant enterprises in the industry will increase greatly.
From a production point of view, lifting equipment, forklift trucks, CNC machine tools, and powder metallurgy production maintained a trend of increasing momentum in previous years, and were not affected by the adjustments in the second half of 2006. In particular, CNC machine tools and powder metallurgy products grew rapidly in the last months. It is expected that this momentum will be maintained until the first half of 2007. The three sub-sectors of construction and construction machinery were not affected by the regulation in the months after 2006. The shovel and concrete machinery still maintained the annual average growth rate. The growth of compacted machinery gradually bottomed out in the third quarter and then rebounded. The monthly growth rate is above 25%, and the sub-industry shows signs of recovery. According to industry practice, the first two quarters are peak sales seasons. Considering the limited impact of last year's regulation, at least we can expect steady growth in the first half of 2007.
Invigorating policy
Domestic investment projects are not subject to tax-free imports of goods again revised. This revision is another comprehensive revision since 2000. The main contents of the revision include: 192 new catalogues, mainly equipments that have already possessed manufacturing capability and technical level can meet the requirements, such as general machinery, metallurgy, mining machinery, food, packaging, environmental protection, instrumentation and electronics. Some market capacity is relatively large, and it is possible for China to form equipment with manufacturing capabilities in the short term. The revised 207 articles are mainly aimed at improving technical specifications and equipment names, and are easy to implement by enterprises and customs. In addition, the technical specifications of the individual items in the original catalogue are high, and this time it has also been downgraded realistically.
This policy adjustment is an important measure to implement the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of the Equipment Manufacturing Industryâ€. Although it has little impact on the short-term profitability of the company, it will provide a relatively fair competition for domestic equipment manufacturing companies to carry out independent innovation. The environment is very beneficial to long-term development. Compared with the last revision, due to the improvement of the specifications of many non-tax-exempt equipment, the leading enterprises that produce high-end products benefit the most.
VAT first return policy. On December 5, 2006, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Value Added Tax Return Policy†on the CNC machine tools, forgings, and tooling industries respectively. The policy is for the products listed in the appendix of each notification from 2006 to 2008. The respective proportions of VAT reimbursement have made new regulations and it is expected that the profits of related companies will be affected for three years from 2007.
The range of CNC machine tools that enjoy the policy includes CNC machine tools, numerical control systems, and functional components. Forging products that enjoy policies are metal parts produced using forging processes. Forgings are divided into large and medium free forgings, die forgings, extrusions, and rings. Powder metallurgy parts and head forming parts; mold products enjoying the policy include molds, mold standard parts, and die clamp integrated inspection tools.
Follow-up policy is worth the wait. Consolidation of income tax of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises: The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress first reviewed the draft of the merger of domestic and foreign-funded corporate income tax mergers on December 24, 2006. The new tax law sets the statutory tax rate at about 25%, and the transition period for foreign-funded enterprises is set at 3 to 5 years. The tax preference will be shifted to industrial preferences, supplemented by regional preferences. This will reduce the overall actual tax burden of domestic-funded enterprises and increase the overall tax burden of foreign-funded enterprises. Taking into account the background of the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry, the machinery industry is in line with the future income tax preferences. If the tax is adjusted to 25%, the performance improvement will be above 10%.
The special plan for large aircrafts was first disclosed at the 2006 annual working meeting of the National Commission for Science, Technology, Industry and Technology for National Defense. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s aviation industry will start the development of large aircrafts in due course. Shortly afterwards, the State Council issued the Outline of the National Medium and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020), and large aircraft, manned space projects, and “Sui†projects were included in the major scientific and technological special projects of the sixteen countries. At the beginning of January this year, the Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense also said that it is conducting an active and cautious demonstration of the development of a large-scale science and technology project for large aircraft. The large aircraft plan includes two parts, a large military transport plane and a trunk passenger plane. It is difficult to develop and has a long period. It is expected that it will span two to three “five-year plansâ€.
CNC machine tool special plan: In the third quarter of 2006, the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools (Draft)†was reported by the association to the National Development and Reform Commission. It has been in the process of soliciting opinions and is expected to be formally announced in the near future. According to the draft, in the next five years, the machine tool industry will create several industrialized bases for CNC machine tools and supporting basic functional component industrial bases. The base companies will enjoy national policies and financial support. Among them, the plan to introduce the supporting value-added tax return, import equipment, tax-free directory adjustment policy has been announced.
The main trend of the industry in 2007
Construction Machinery: The slowdown in the growth rate of investment and industrial added value in the second half of last year brewed the arrival of a new round of climax. After the government's control techniques are upgraded, investment will not be excessively reduced, but it will not appear the kind of hot in 2006. The over-expectation of the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry will result from the unexpected growth of exports, which may be more pronounced in the traditional off-season from January to February.
Shipbuilding and port equipment: The rational return of the shipping price has made it difficult to conceal the increase in performance. As of the end of November 2006, global orders for new hand-held vessels have reached 404 million DWT, which is close to one-third of the total global tonnage of existing merchant ships. In 2006, the global fleet tonnage growth rate was 6.1%, which was higher than the shipping volume by 5%. With a growth rate of ~6%, it is expected that the gap will be more pronounced in 2007. From the perspective of handheld orders and fleet ownership, 52% of container ships, 33.2% of tankers, and 20% of bulk carriers are expected to see demand for tankers and container ships slow or even decline (although the bulk carrier market will become more active. Especially considering that the proportion of people over 20 years of age is as high as 42%).
In the short term, in the first half of 2007, due to the implementation of many new rules such as protective coatings for new ballast tanks, double-hulled fuel tanks, and double-hulled oil tankers, orders will remain strong. In addition, from a longer period of time, the main driving factor of the global shipbuilding industry economy is naturally the international shipping demand brought about by the global economic prosperity, and the economic downturn naturally also looks at the direction of the global economy. Therefore, the shipbuilding industry has at least a period of calm after the explosion.
Machine tools: The integration of industry growth and resources is the main focus. According to historical data, the prosperity of the machine tool industry lags behind that of investment. It is expected that the investment climate in 2006 will have a positive impact on the 2007 machine tools. From the growth data at the end of 2006, the growth rate of gold-cutting machine tools and numerically-controlled machine tools has obviously increased. After adjustments in previous years, the industry's technological level and operating conditions have greatly improved; the machine tool industry is also the main beneficiary of the revitalization policy. Therefore, we are optimistic about the growth of the machine tool industry in 2007.
Railway equipment: Investment has increased dramatically. The Ministry of Railways' all-road planning work conference held in mid-January proposed that the scale of railway investment in fixed assets this year be 332 billion yuan, including 256 billion yuan in infrastructure, 16 billion yuan in renovations, and 60 billion yuan in vehicle purchases. There are 70 newly-started projects, focusing on major projects such as the railway passenger dedicated line, coal transportation channel, and inter-regional contact channels, and all construction machinery companies will benefit from this.
Although the number of projects started was reduced by 17 compared with the same period of last year, the total investment plan growth rate remained at the level of nearly 50%. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment plans is 55%, and it is expected that the demand for components for construction machinery and railway construction parts will continue to increase. The purchase cost of vehicles is planned to increase by 36%, with an increase of about 16 billion yuan. It is expected that the purchase of vehicles will continue to increase rapidly.
Coal Machinery: New opportunities for high-end downstream demand. Judging from the planning of the coal industry, the coal industry in the future will develop in the direction of large-scale, mechanized, high-efficiency, and high-security industries. The future demand for the coal machinery industry will not only depend on new production capacity. The replacement of old equipment will be The main point of view of the booming coal industry is to bring new development opportunities to the coal machinery industry, especially to high-end products.
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