The monitoring report pointed out that the factors affecting the price changes of domestic petrochemical products in the first quarter are mainly the fluctuation of crude oil prices in the international market, the impact of petrochemical products prices, and the sharp rise in natural rubber prices.
The report also predicts that in the second quarter of this year, supported by the high oil prices in the international market, the prices of major petrochemical products will still operate at high levels. However, due to the downstream demand and related products, prices of different varieties will rise or fall. It is expected that this price will remain until the end of the year.
Several factors supporting the price of petrochemical products are: First, the high price of oil in the international market will still have a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products. At present, the international market price of oil is still at a high level in the same period in history. Among them, crude oil prices were comparable to the same period of last year, and refined oil prices were slightly higher than the same period of last year. At the same time, according to the latest data released, the economic growth rate of the United States and the European Union in 2006 exceeded both of 2005, and the economic situation in the first quarter of this year was also relatively good. Therefore, in the period to come, it will be very difficult for the oil price in the international market to drop sharply again. The continued high oil price operation will still have a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products.
Second, the overall demand for petrochemical products will also support the high price of petrochemical products. At present, China's economy is in a period of rapid development. Buildings, textiles, electronics, automobiles and other industries are in great demand for petrochemical products, and some chemical products need to be imported in large quantities. This will support the long-term operation of petrochemical products at high prices.
Third, the production and operation of downstream enterprises also have an important influence on the price of domestic petrochemical products. Statistics show that the production of chemical fiber, tires and other products will maintain a relatively rapid growth momentum, which will increase the demand for related petrochemical products to a certain extent, and prompt its prices to maintain a high level.
Fourth, the continuous increase in production capacity will also affect the price of some petrochemical products to some extent. In recent years, due to the sharp increase in the price of petrochemical products, some petrochemical production plants have been built in China, and the production capacity of some petrochemical products has increased significantly. According to relevant data, in 2006, the domestic production capacity of several large-scale polypropylene production plants was nearly 1.5 million tons per year. These devices will be put into operation one after another starting this year and will have a major impact on the relevant domestic petrochemical product markets and prices in the future.
Fifth, in May, the domestic natural rubber producing areas in Hainan and Yunnan will be gradually cut, and the Southeast Asian region will gradually enter the season of rubber tapping. The supply of natural rubber will change from tight to loose, and the increase in the price of synthetic rubber will also be suppressed to some extent.
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