"This shift is an inevitable result of the flow of capital. The current auto market is in an era of micro growth, and there will be a period of slow growth in the future. This is the general trend and the natural law. According to the report of the China Automobile Association, China's auto market will continue its slow growth next year, with annual sales of 29.87 million vehicles, up 3% year-on-year. It is foreseeable how fierce competition will be in the auto market in 2018, and the development trend of major companies will show a kind of “seesawboard†trend.
If we combine this year's market performance, the sedan market is clearly expected to have less chance of "overturning" next year; SUV market is still hot, small and compact SUVs will enter the "explosion period"; new energy models may enter rapid development. era.
The car will enter the "crouching" period
In order to increase sales this year, auto makers have resorted to all kinds of promotions. Various promotional activities have emerged in an endless stream, and concessions are not to be underestimated. The result is “a few happy familiesâ€. According to statistics, the average sales price of the car market in November reached 158,000 yuan, up 0.3 million yuan over the same period of last year, which indicates that the consumption level has increased compared with the same period of last year. Although the level of consumption increased, but the sales performance of cars in the first half of this year was lower than the level of the same period of last year. Although the market gradually recovered in the third quarter, after entering the fourth quarter, the sedan market experienced two consecutive months of negative growth. .
The last negative growth in the car was still in 2015. The negative growth at that time was due to a number of factors such as restrictions on purchases, limited lines, and restricted use of used vehicles, which caused the auto manufacturers' inventory to rise. However, adjustments in policies and some changes in corporate marketing methods are adjustable. . However, the negative growth in sales of the sedan is completely different from the previous one.
According to data released in December, the sales volume of the narrow passenger car market in November was 2.554 million, up 0.3% year-on-year, of which 12.23 million were in the sedan market, down 4.5% year-on-year. The average market price rises, but the market scale gradually shrinks, which to a certain extent shows that the decline in spending power, this may be the sign that the car market is about to turn down. Moreover, with the increase in the proportion of SUV market, the rise of the market segment and other market segments, the increase in consumer choice space, to a certain extent, also limits the further development of the car market, and the car's negative growth or prediction The turning point in the decline of the car market has already emerged.
The year 2018 is a year in which China’s auto industry is intensifying competition. The auto market may face a new “reshuffleâ€. Companies such as FAW-Volkswagen, which is mainly car-based, also chose T-Roc to enter the SUV market in 2018. How fierce market competition will be. According to the China Automotive Industry Association’s forecast for the Chinese auto market in 2018, in terms of passenger vehicles, passenger car growth is expected to be 3% in 2018, with sales of 25.59 million vehicles; of which, saloon sales will be 11.77 million, which will drop 1 year-on-year. %. Judging from this, the car market may enter the "crouching" period next year. However, when the growth period of the next car is at the end, it still needs to be decided according to the future market demand.
Small, compact SUVs enter the "blowout" phase
Although the SUV market has passed the "blowout" period, but entering the 2017, consumer demand in the SUV market has been relatively strong, sales are still very hot. According to data from the CUCH, November sales of SUVs were 1,116,129 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.11%, an increase of 8.37% from the previous quarter, reaching the best level this year. Judging from the performance of the passenger vehicle market this year, although the cross-border car-sex represented by the SUV is expected to continue into the next year, it is no surprise that sales of low-end SUVs will continue to account for the top spot in the SUV market.
Through sorting out information about the upcoming models in 2018, China Netcom found that of the 53 new models of the new brand planning of its own brands, 35 models were SUVs, accounting for 66% of the total, of which compact and small SUVs had a total of 24 models; The joint venture brand new car SUV is 19, of which there are 10 small SUVs, there are 6 compact SUVs, and the remaining 3 are medium or large SUVs.
At present, with the increase of vehicle ownership in first-tier and second-tier cities, the third and fourth-tier cities’ auto market has become an important planning regional market for the company's future development. At the end of this year, the sales of small-size SUVs will end in the outbreak period, and the SUV competition between joint-venture brands and self-owned brands will become even fiercer in the current situation.
Chinese cars currently take the U.S. route, cars, and domineering, but from the perspective of future trends, the future should gradually shift to the European route, which is more of a small car. After all, the compact and compact SUV's clear model positioning makes it more suitable for shuttles to the city, and from the current market needs, meeting the convenience of daily commuting is still the first factor for consumers to choose cars. The explosive growth of small, compact SUVs next year may be the first step in the transition.
New energy enters the stage of "rapid development"
According to the data released by the traffic authority, as of the end of June this year, China’s car ownership reached 205 million vehicles. The surge in automobiles means a sharp increase in the demand for oil resources and more pollution caused by greenhouse gas emissions. To get rid of dependence on traditional fossil fuels, many countries have targeted new energy vehicles. On September 9 this year, Xin Guobin, the vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, announced that China has started a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. This remark made a new round of discussions on new energy vehicles in China. According to the statistics of the economic operation of the automobile industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the sales of small-displacement passenger vehicles have grown rapidly in recent years due to the promotion of energy-saving vehicles.
According to the news released by the CLUCC, in November, sales of new energy narrow passenger vehicles reached 74,900 units, an increase of 131.4% year-on-year; from January to November, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 445,100 units, an increase of 108.2% year-on-year. According to estimates by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by 2020, sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 2 million. Although the number of new energy vehicles in the country is still a drop in the ocean front, but with the future of China's automotive technology development and more and more stringent fuel consumption regulations, new energy vehicles have become irreversible future trends.
However, the trend is a trend, but development is not achieved overnight. Progressive progress is the best choice for China’s new energy vehicles to move forward steadily, just as Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, said: “The ban on fuel vehicles is a big deal. In fact, China must be cautious when it comes to the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. We must follow the laws of science and follow market rules (consider). Do not blindly follow up.
Written at the end: With the increase in the number of vehicle ownership in China, the status of China's auto industry has changed substantially in the global automotive market. But everything has its two sides, and all the industries will eventually enter the shifting circle of “You increase, decrease, increase, decrease, increase.â€
Under the rapid development of China's auto market, New Energy and Auto Intelligent Network Alliance has become a new growth point for the future development of auto companies. Most auto companies will face huge profits in the face of weak demand and various policies. pressure. How to find the direction of advancement in this large market in China, better meet the needs of consumers, and thus stabilize and expand the share of the company in the market is the problem that the company urgently needs to solve.
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